The Weekender: March 1, 2025
Oscars picks and posts about movies.
It’s Oscars week! That means everything I wrote this week was somehow related to movies. Did I not come up with this idea until Wednesday? Yes. Did I have a lot of time to write stuff this week? No1. Whatever, that’s how it goes sometimes.
Here are my predictions for Sunday’s winners, plus my personal favorites (in categories where I feel I’ve seen enough of the nominees to make a well-informed decision — which turns out was not very many of them) based on this ballot sent to me by the host of the Oscars Party I will be attending.
Live Action Short Film: A Lien
I haven’t seen any of these films. I’m totally making my guess based on limited research from blogs and podcasts. Off to a great start here.
Animated Short Film: In the Shadow of the Cypress
This is another category in which I have not seen any of the nominees and I’m picking In the Shadow of the Cypress because the title is the most serious-sounding Oscarsish title to me.
Visual Effects: Dune: Part Two
The only other movie I saw in this list was Alien: Romulus so I can’t really make a pick for my favorite here but one thing is for sure and that is my “favorite” definitely would not be Alien: Romulus. I’m basically banking that Dune: Part Two is going to get some love “down-ballot” after being a very early frontrunner for Best Picture and then completely disappearing from the list of favorites for that race.
Sound: A Complete Unknown
Look, it’s a movie about music — it won the award from the Cinema Audio Society. I’m picking it. I can’t really name a favorite because I don’t think the sound for any of the films specifically stood out in any way to my old ass ears.
Film Editing: Conclave
I went back and forth between Conclave and Anora about what I think will win. And since I think Anora should win, I’m going to pick Conclave for what will win. Solid system I have figured out.
Cinematography: The Brutalist
I don’t think The Brutalist will get the win for Directing or Picture, but I think it wins here. The strengths of the film really come from the cinematography as well as Brody’s performance (and the score), so I think it gets a win here. It would also be my choice for my favorite in this category — the film really does look fantastic.
Production Design: Wicked
I’ve seen all of the films nominated in this category, except for Wicked. I thought that all the other nominees were very well-designed and found it hard to choose a favorite amongst them. So I’m going to guess that Wicked will win. It has to win something, right?
Documentary Short: I Am Ready, Warden
This pick is based completely on stuff I read and listened to about the Oscars. I have no other knowledge or context.
Documentary: No Other Land
Again, I didn’t see any of these (why am I even making picks, right?) but this film seems to be the most talked about - but also might not win because it is a film about Gaza. Who knows anything at all?
Original Score: The Brutalist
This is my pick for what will win, what should win, and what I will listen to as background music all day long, and then wonder why I feel on edge and anxious and pumped up but in a bad way.
Original Song: El Mal
I don’t think I’ve ever heard any of these songs even the one from the movie I saw (Sing Sing). I’m picking the song that I heard about from the divisive Netflix musical.
Costume Design: Wicked
See: my comments for Production Design
My favorite of the bunch would be Nosferatu — everybody looked great. Good clothes all around in that one.
Makeup & Hairstyling: The Substance
This gets the nod as my favorite and my pick of what will win. It certainly stands out the most among all the nominees.
Original Screenplay: Anora
I wouldn’t be surprised if A Real Pain won here, but I’m going to lock in my pick for Anora. I haven’t read any of the actual screenplays (do the people who vote?), but based on the final films (what I assume most voters base their decision on anyways), Anora would also be my favorite based on the structure, characters, ability to handle various tones, and overall storytelling.
International Feature Film: I’m Still Here
I think (again, just based on stuff that I’ve read or listened to) that this would have hands down been Emilia Perez up until the film’s recent controversies. This is the film I’ve heard the most good stuff about otherwise so I’m going to guess that it will win.
Animated Feature Film: Flow
Flow totally seems like the kind of film that would win here, that’s why it’s my guess. I’ve only seen The Wild Robot (which I liked a lot) and Memoir of a Snail (also liked, but boy was it a downer) and of those two I think The Wild Robot has a chance to also win here. It’s nominated in a few other categories, but I think Flow’s “seriousness” will put it over the top over a film for kids that parents will also enjoy and cry about.
Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldaña
I haven’t seen Emilia Pérez but I think Saldaña’s got the juice to win here. Of what I have seen (A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist, and Conclave) my favorite of these performances would be Isabella Rossellini. I think Saldaña gets the win in an “everybody soured on this movie, but we still really like you” kind of way.
Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin
This is a no doubt about it win, right? It sure seems like Culkin has it in the bag. While Culkin is great in this film I think I’d give my own personal choice to Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice (a film that nobody wants to honor for good reason) or even Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown (he’s so good…but I think he’s been overshadowed by Chalamet.) Guy Pierce is also very good in The Brutalist, I must mention. This is a stacked category.
Adapted Screenplay: Conclave
I’ve heard this category called “one of the biggest locks of the night” — so I’m just going to believe what I heard. Again, I haven’t read these screenplays but based on the final films I think my favorite would be Nickel Boys.
Actress: Demi Moore
I had my guess set as Mikey Madison (who would be my choice) until right before I sent this out. It was the last edit I made. I kept going back and forth and finally locking in my guess that Demi Moore will get the win.
Actor: Timothée Chalamet
I think the little guy is gonna do it. Brody would be my pick if not for the AI controversy around The Brutalist (which, I think, is what might put it over the top for Chalamet) and Colman Domingo in Sing Sing would be next up for me in my rankings of favorite/best performances.
Directing: Anora
Sean Baker won the DGA award, and that’s good enough for me to guess that he will win here as well. He’s also my pick for favorite, but it also be cool if Coralie Fargeat won. The other picks are kind of boring (although I guess The Brutalist would be fine.)
Picture: Conclave
My pick would be Anora. It was my favorite film from last year and also had everything going for it in terms of “quality”. I just don’t know if “The Academy” is going to recognize it. I have a feeling it’s gonna be one of those years that we look back on and think “well, that movie was good, but it clearly wasn’t the film we remember most fondly from 2024.” I liked Conclave a lot, but it seems like the “safe” choice from a voter perspective — that or A Complete Unknown, and I think there’s enough of a stigma on the idea of a musician biopic (from a filmmaker who already previously made one of the most biopic-y biopics of all time) that pushes Conclave to be my “it’s a very solid film but ultimately the boring choice The Academy will make” guess for Best Picture.
Things I wrote that you can read…
Do we all agonize over what we want to watch when we sit down to decide what to watch? I know I do. Paralyzed by choice. Decision fatigue. What kind of world have we created for ourselves?
We all have but one life to live.
This is an older post (and thus, behind the dreaded paywall2) but is still movie-related and fits in for Oscars Week
Another paywalled post (boo-hoo) where I wrote about something I really liked about Anora - a film you have already read is my favorite from last year.
The Stretch Four Podcast: Propaganda P
The Sixers have finally shut down Joel Embiid for the season, something that feels a lot more dreadful than it would have if they had taken our advice and done it months ago. We discuss what the rest of their season should look like, how Paul George can comfortably return to his podcast, what we want to see out of NBA player pods, and finally, Keenan makes some totally blind predictions about who will win at the 2025 Ocasars.
Some random thoughts (dare I say “jokes” about 2024 films)
Positive reviews of the three-hour and thirty-five-minute epic film The Brutalist make a point to say that the reviewer “couldn’t feel the length.” That is also — what she said.
Nosferatu is a movie about Elon Musk buying Twitter to try to get people to love him again like they did a decade ago.
Here is a tip: don’t wear sunscreen with zinc to see Joker: Folie à Deux.
I watched “Anyone But You” and “Hit Man” on back-to-back days and then had a dream that Glen Powell was my best friend. If that’s not star power, I don’t know what is.
If I have a “no snacks until Kidman” rule, but there is a trailer for Babygirl, am I allowed to eat?
Sorry to go all “cinema sins” but the very first thing that happens in the trailer for A Quiet Place Day One is a man telling a cat it is not welcome in a bodega.
The worst movie moment of the year for me happened when, in the film MaxXxine, which takes place in 1985, the character Maxine says “I’m 33.” From that point on I couldn’t stop thinking about how her stupid Boomer generation ruined America.
As a guy who used to weigh 400 pounds, the entire plot of A Different Man happens to me every time I see a charming, confident, well-liked man who happens to be fat.
Paul Schrader’s Oh Canada is a film about how all men will remember themselves as taller than they actually were.
I’m glad that I do not personally know the writer and director of Smile 2, because I’d never stop wondering if he got the "smile so creepy it makes you want to kill yourself" idea from looking at my face.
I guess it’s true. You either die a hero or (Saturday Night) Live long enough to see yourself become the villain.
Me, Elsewhere
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